Have a look at the attachments for my thoughts on this.
When the circuit board pads are on their own without the switch disc anywhere near to them, there will be three components to the capacitance between the two pads.
C1, the capacitance due to the area of copper on the ends of the two pads.
C2, the capacitance due to the fringing electric field passing through the circuit board material.
C3, the capacitance due to the fringing electric field passing through the air.
C2 will be greater than C3 due to the dielectric constant of the circuit board material.
The capacitance between the two pads is then Ctotal = C1 + C2 +C3
When the pads have a switch disc in close proximity to them, I think that there will be six components to the capacitance between the two pads.
C1, the capacitance due to the area of copper on the ends of the two pads. (As before)
C2, the capacitance due to the fringing electric field passing through the circuit board material. (As before).
C4 and C5, the capacitance due to the fringing electric field passing through the air at the edges of the pads/switch disc.
C6 and C7, the capacitance between each pad and the switch disc.
I think that the C3 capacitance may dissapear in this configuration, or at least be very much reduced.
The capacitance between the two pads now becomes Ctotal = C1 + C2 + ((C4 + C6) series (C5 +C7))
The capacitance between two parallel plates is easily calculated using the standard formula C = E0.Er.A/d
How to calculate the fringing capacitance, I don't have the faintest idea.
I hope this helps.
JimB