On another forum, the same question has been raised. Some assume that IR will bounce off the surface of water like it does from a wall. That is, when perpendicular, it bounces straight back so you can get a TOF distance measurement.
I have a Stanley FatMax which uses IR at 630 to 690 nm and TOF to measure distance, surprisingly to fairly high precision. So, I did an experiment from a fixed height of about 4' aimed at a basin of fresh water (empty and full). It did not measure the water level surface. In fact, the measured distance when the basin was full was increased, presumably due to the higher refractive index of water compared to air and reflection from the bottom in both cases.
That was a quick and dirty experiment, but it was enough to suggest that the fundamental assumption needs to be confirmed before doing a lot of work on the project.
John