OK, silly comments aside (I know it is as old as the hills, but someone had to say it) there are things that don't add up.
A couple of them, when you hear a noise, you don't jump up, you lie still, very still, as if you were still asleep, because if the intruder is standing over you, his bullet is going to hit you before you can pull the trigger.
Who would shoot through a door, unless you knew where on the other side the target would be, and that they did not have a firearm? If the person was in the wrong place, they could return fire and would have a better chance of hitting you being close to the door.
He went back to the bed and noticed her missing before he checked what he was shooting at??? (though the way this was put could be press distortion)
It will be easy to show what the cricket bat hit, door, head or both.
Of course he is full of grief, he wanted to keep her, and being told on Valentines day she was leaving would have triggered his rage (guesswork, but just the kind of thing a woman may do for added cred)
Even in gated compounds, most windows in SA have bars on them, which would make some noise when cutting, though wrapped with rags and cut with bolt cutters the job can be quiet.
Why would someone break into the bathroom? They would know it must be near a bedroom, even if the bathroom window was shielded from view, there would be a far greater risk of being discovered. Though, most determined criminals in SA would not think anything of disposing of anyone who got in their way.
Speculation is wrong, but then we are being given plenty to speculate on. Trouble is that the info is being given to a worldwide audience, most of whom are speculating on standards and perceptions foreign to SA.
Every time you hear a new bit of information, it makes the whole story seem more wrong, I think he will have a hard time proving his innocence.