Sorry, I was responding to a comment that you needed PID control. A little over engineered for an incubator. The proverbial use of a howizer as a flyswatter.
P I D is "Proportional Integral Derivative". It is a type of proportional control, temp, level, speed, whatever, that is performed with an analogue computer. Essentially, a machine doing integral calculus. It is only recently that micro-processors have reached sufficient power they can simulate the functions with any degree of accuracy.
The concept revolves around a process, say temperature control. A set point is given. What temp do you want? The temp is measured for deviation from the set point. (error) direction, amplitude, rate of change, direction of change,... As the error decreases, approaching set point, the heat is reduced, not switched off, just reduced. Did that slow the rate of change? Is the change still in the correct direction? How close is temp to the set point? Do we need more reduction or is the change falling off too fast? Many, many variables that interact. PID controllers are very accurate, difficult to tune and a bit pricey. (read as God-awful, new car expensive for a hobby)
For an application of this nature, PI control would suffice. No Derivative, merely proportional and integral. Think automotive cruise control.....
A primitive form of this is used as a controller for HVAC systems. The thermostat contains a bi-metal strip(adjustable) to anticipate approach to set point. In the case of large heating plants, the heaters are cut off before actual desired temperature is reached.
Anticipating reaching set point.... The response will vary from plant to plant, depending on thermal inertia of the heat source, location of the thermostat, ambient(outside) temp, and other factors. Through inertia, the actual temp rise will slow, hopefully ending just as set point is reached.
This is useful in your case because you want to maintain a fairly narrow temp band. PI would help eliminate overshoot.
Sorry I got so heavy handed. Sometimes I forget, we all here have different backgrounds. Mine includes nearly 40 years in industrial automation.