Chance of happening

[eblc1388]

This is a quote from an article by auther William L. Watts.
He is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.

The original article is here:

Bank of England's King cools rate-cut hopes

Credit markets see a 50% chance of a 25 basis-point October rate cut and a 125% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November.

Can anyone explains what is a 125% chance actually means?

As far as I know, when something is unlikely to happen, it has about 0% chance. When it will definitely happen, it has close to 100% chance.

 

[OutToLunch]

likely a typo. maybe they meant to say 25% to show that the chances of a rate cut are diminishing.

 

[eblc1388]

Make sense. Thanks.

 

[jpanhalt]

Agreed, it is probably a typo. Was it borne of hysteria? According to some, the entire financial infrastructure of the US and a big part of international finance is on the verge of a "correction" (i.e., collapse) reminiscent of the 1930's.

Here is one report on the collapse of Lehman Brothers:

Let the bank runs begin!
By Patrick Wood, Editor
September 15, 2008

The immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy will be a massive and manic flight to liquidity and withdrawal of funds and credit from banks, S&L's, insurance companies and brokerages, leading to more failures.


The stunning magnitude of debt owed by Lehman Brothers - $613 billion -- comes to light because of their public bankruptcy filing. No wonder that Barclays, Bank of America and other potential buyers took a few sniffs at Lehman's books and walked away.

$613billion added to $330billion for the auction rate securities scandal added to ???$1trillion for the sub-prime fiasco added to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being nationalized and AIG on the verge of bankruptcy is a problem. The dollar may not be worth much today, but those amounts are big even in euros.

If you are under 50, you can say: What, me worry? If you are over 50, it's not Democrats or Republicans, it's years of greed and corruption on Wall Street supported by both parties -- just like the 1930's.

As someone said, now is the time to put everything into liquid assets (wine) and drink it.

I wish I could put smilies with this, but it's serious stuff.

John

 

[eblc1388]

Agree.

There is a very long video(hours), probably made in the '90s about the role of banks and The Fed Reserve played in the US monetary market. I watched it on the Google video and it pretty much summed up and predicted what would happen in the years to come(which is right now!!!). The video(s) can be located by using "money bankers" as search phase.

I recommended it to anyone trying to make sense of what is really happening in the US market today.

 

[rjvh]

$613billion added to $330billion for the auction rate securities scandal added to ???$1trillion

I wish I could put smilies with this, but it's serious stuff.

John

It's still not that much as that the state of america has to the creditors from japan, china, korea and many other countrys

if I would be an american and conserned about my home land and its security than that i would find very disturbing

Now I am not a person that says it's all the american people fault of this situation

but not being an american, there are a lot of things that I can't understand of how easy some desicions are made without realy looking to the consequences

like for example the (ab)use of credit cards and spending money that's not there (one day you have to pay it back)

still I hope that people keep their head above the water and realize that they are still in a previlidge situation comparing with a lot of other people on this world that do it with much less as that they have to adjust now

going a step back always is unpleasant and hurts for the most of us

Robert-Jan

 

[arrie]

This is a quote from an article by auther William L. Watts.
He is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.

The original article is here:

Bank of England's King cools rate-cut hopes



Can anyone explains what is a 125% chance actually means?

As far as I know, when something is unlikely to happen, it has about 0% chance. When it will definitely happen, it has close to 100% chance.

Or maybe a 100% chance of a 33 base points cut.
We have been told that our petrol price will not go down by much next month, even if the crude has dropped that far. Some dollar rand excuse.